Prognostic factors analysis in patients with stage II bladder cancer

Purpose. Investigate prognostic solemnity of the clinical and laboratory values of the II stage bladder cancer patients and develop a nomogram allowing to predict a clinical outcome of this patient category.
Materials and methods. Data of 299 BC patients, being treated in oncology center named after N.N. Aleksandrov since 1995 to 2002 were analysed retrospectively. The patients with transitional cell BC T2N0M0 (UICC classification 2002) treated according to a radical program with the use of organ-sparing or organ-removal method were included in the study. The organ-sparing treatment was undergone by approximately 250 patients (83,6%), cystectomy — 49 (16,4%). Observation period median amounted 62 months. Risk ratio (HR) and confidence interval (CI) were calculated. The calculations were performed by program complex STATISTICA 6.0. The obtained values of the risk ratio were used to develop a nomogram.
Results. Main 5-year probability of survival of the II stage bladder cancer patients included in the study mounted 70,9 ± 2,8%. On basis of ratios obtained by multiple classification using multivariate regression model of the proportional risks of Kox, a nomogram of the prediction of the treatment results of the II stage bladder cancer patients was developed. A classification scale in what integer values in scores were awarded to gradations of the prognostic factors, is made. According to the given nomogram, a criterion can possess the value from 0 to 19 scores. The investigated body of 299 patients are distributed to 2 classes with the statistically significant discriminating long-term results of the treatment. 88 (29,4%) patients with the general 5-year probability of survival are attributed to unfavorable class, 211 (70,6%) patients with the probability of survival 82,1±2,8% — to the favorable counterpart.